The World After Coronavirus

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Pre and Post Coronavirus way of life
Coronavirus or COVID-19 is now synonymous to lockdowns, curfews, massive airport screenings, quarantine and social distancing across the globe. It has affected every aspect of - political, economic, social, technological and cultural - life. The world as we know before the coronavirus and after the coronavirus is not going to be the same. There will be many fundamental changes in an individual's life, structural changes in the functioning of the society, and functional changes on the professional front. Already face masks, social distancing, priority to health etc. have become the new norm across the globe.

Background

On December 31, 2019, China reported the World Health Organization (WHO) about the outbreak of cluster of cases and pneumonia of an unknown cause in Wuhan City in Hubei province. On January 09, 2020, WHO issued a statement saying Chinese researchers have made "preliminary determination" of the virus as a novel coronavirus.

Since the announcement, there have been reports of more than 4.9 lakh deaths due to COVID-19 across the world till June 25, 2020. More than 180 countries reported the cases, including India. COVID-19 has held the world in a paralytic embrace for over five months now.

History told us that nothing is absolute and permanent, but it is far from clear on how long the COVID-19 is going to last. This air-bourne life-threatening disease attacks only human being thus discouraging us from coming into close contact with each other. As a result, places that require people to work in groups and communities are currently out of limits. The modern mechanized way of life came to a standstill.

Our planet and humankind have been through many waves of adversities from the oldest recorded Typhoid Epidemic in 430 BC Athens to most recent ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. All the past events like wars or epidemics & pandemics impacted every aspect of human life, and this time is no different. From the industrial revolution to socio-economic transformations, human beings have always adopted towards self-preservation. Indeed, the world has undergone quite significant changes in less than 100 years! So wouldn't be worthwhile to ponder over the possible aftermaths of ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and kind of the world we might be stepping into once this phase is just another page in history.

Global Impact

The world has always witnessed the movement of people, goods, services since the dawn of human civilization. Globalization or notion of exchange and interchange has always existed. However, the contemporary form of globalization surpasses its earlier versions, owing to its speed, scale and reachability driving on the wings of innovations in information and communication technology.

As the world becomes more and more connected, it also becomes interdependent. If this interdependency is left unmanaged, it will inevitably lead to many systematic risks.

Appeals to nationalism and closed borders will not resolve the complexities of globalization. It is time for action. National and international governments, businesses and their citizens must do everything they can to flatten the epidemic curve immediately. Its time for world government's to launch coordinated international efforts to find vaccines, mobilize medical supplies to stop the spread of COVID-19. In the meantime, we also need to ensure that we prepare ourselves for the future.

Economic Risk

Source: IMF
The impact of economic fallout due to coronavirus is now visible all around the world. Its further severity will depend on how long the pandemic lasts. Longer, the pandemic severe its effect on the economy. The initial assessment estimates that economic impact due to coronavirus will far exceed that of the 2008 economic crisis in its scale and global impact, leading to losses which will exceed $9 trillion easily, or well over 10% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Recently, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) has already cut its global GDP growth forecast for 2020 to -4.9% from an April estimate of -3.0%, while also toning down its optimism for a swift recovery in 2021.

Social Change

Habits which we have adopted in the wake of COVID-19 is going to stick around for a long time now. Our vigilance around things like disinfecting surfaces is probably going to continue. Our new way of interacting with each other like “live long and prosper” salutes instead of handshakes, video chats instead of conference-room huddles. Government is going to reorient their attitudes towards public health issues and systems.

Technological Upgradation

Once again, the world is turning to technology to devise more advanced features that can help the business operate in these despairing global conditions. A new paradigm in cloud computing, stepping up AI, Machine Learning, and Cyber Security is happening as we speak to safeguard people's health and ensure longevity. New pathways are being channelized in the realm of cloud-based technologies, which allows employees to work in the absence of a physical workspace.

Technological up-gradation not only automated the manufacturing process but also challenged the service sectors such as call centres and administrative process. This pandemic made the companies realized that they can now provide these services more cheaply with computers in the basement of a headquarters than by people at distant locations. Technological up-gradation poses a profound question about the future of work everywhere. It is a particular challenge for low-income countries with a young population of work seekers.

Forthcoming Future

Eventually, we will get over this crisis. But too many people will have died, the economy will be severely scarred, and the threat of pandemic will remain. The priority then must be not only recovery but also establishing a robust multilateral mechanism for ensuring that a similar or even worse pandemic never again rises.

There is no wall high enough that will keep out the next pandemic, or indeed any of the other significant threats to our future. Detection and determination of future biological threats are of utmost importance.
Disclaimer: The views are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of any other individual, institute or government body.
Location: Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India

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